Looking Back, Looking Forward The month of January is named after the Roman god Janus, who was imagined as having two faces: one looking toward the past, the other looking toward the future. In a similar manner, economists like to look in both directions to better understand economic trends. But instead of two faces, they […]
Change How You Look at Economic Indicators: Three Perspectives
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New Chair, Same Fed?
In more than three hours of testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on February 11, new Federal Reserve Chair Janet L. Yellen laid out a monetary policy blueprint very similar to that of her predecessor, Ben Bernanke.1 Even so, Yellen — the first woman to head the central bank — takes over at a […]
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If Inflation is Low, Why Are Prices High?
“Headline inflation,” as measured by changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was a low 1.5% in 2013 and running at an annual rate of just 2.1% through June 2014.1 Yet when you go to the grocery store or fill up your car at the gas pump, you might wonder what the talk of low […]
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Upside Down: Tightening the Rules of Corporate Inversions
On September 22, 2014, the U.S. Treasury announced new rules making it more difficult and less profitable for U.S. companies to move their headquarters overseas through a process known as inversion. Inversions have received significant media attention over the last few months, and the action by federal regulators brought a new level of scrutiny that […]
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Watching for Inflation
Fed officials eventually need to decide when to tighten monetary policy and raise the benchmark interest rate, which has been near zero since 2008. Most Fed officials believe the first rate increase will occur in 2015, but the exact timing hinges on how quickly inflation rises and when the employment situation improves.1 As a result, […]
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Is a Strong Dollar Good for the U.S. Economy?
On January 16, 2015, the U.S. dollar reached an 11-year high in its value against the euro — part of a trend that has seen the value of the dollar rise steadily against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners since mid-summer 2014.1–2 Not coincidentally, the price of oil has dropped sharply during the same […]
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The Problem with Projections
Last June, the Federal Reserve lowered its 2014 forecast for economic growth from 3% to between 2.1% and 2.3%, after data indicated that a particularly harsh winter caused U.S. gross domestic product to fall unexpectedly in the first quarter.1 The Fed’s quarterly economic forecasts, which influence interest-rate decisions, have been released to the public since […]
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Key Indicators Signal Progress for the U.S. Economy
Data from government and private-sector reports can generate tantalizing headlines for the business media. And lately, nearly six years after the official end of the Great Recession, the good news is that Americans finally have reasons to feel upbeat about their financial prospects. Economic indicators typically fall into one of three categories. Leading indicators are […]
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Bouncing Back: Key Indicators Signal Progress for the U.S. Economy
Data from government and private-sector reports can generate tantalizing headlines for the business media. And lately, nearly six years after the official end of the Great Recession, the good news is that Americans finally have reasons to feel upbeat about their financial prospects. Economic indicators typically fall into one of three categories. Leading indicators are […]
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A Grain of Salt – Or is it Oil?
Have you ever heard that oil and gold prices are related to the value of the U.S. Dollar? One thing that is always pointed out in the news is that somehow there is a strong relationship between those markets. It seems like these markets evoke an emotional response to a lot of people, so that’s […]
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The 20 Things Only Highly Successful Stock Investors Understand
Over the past two decades we’ve learned many lessons from not only our own experience, but from other successful investors. In this video I discuss “The 20 Things Only Highly Successful Stock Investors Understand.” We draw from the lessons learned in the past and chart a course for a profitable future. We can use this wisdom to […]
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Is There Opportunity in Europe?
You may have noticed that European currencies has been under pressure recently. In this video, I discuss what is on our radar screen in Europe, emerging markets and equity investments. I discuss valuation and quantitative measures of demand and supply in those markets. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed […]
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Globalism is Protectionism in Disguise
We are witnessing a public revolt against “globalism” in the EU. Voters see it as a tangled web of politics that can kill their economy and culture. Can you be in favor of free market capitalism and be pro-globalism? Globalism is defined as the attitude or policy of placing the interests of the entire world […]
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Party Like Its 1999!
Remember the 1990’s? We had a huge bull market and technology was booming. Watch this video for lessons learned from the 90’s and how it can help us be better investors today.
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What’s on My Radar: The Economy, China, Taxes, Credit Scores, UPS, and Oil Reserves
Macro Overview Political turmoil was not able to derail market momentum in May as the three major market indices continued on their upward trajectory. Delayed passage of stimulus driven legislation is reducing inflation expectations as markets anticipate an extended low rate environment. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s closely watched GDPNow forecast model is predicting […]
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What’s on My Radar – July 2017
Macro Overview International markets reacted in June as central banks throughout Europe and Asia signaled that monetary stimulus efforts were slowly being dispatched. The news propped up European currencies including the euro, pound, and Swiss franc as anticipated higher rates tend to bode well for currencies. Central banks from around the world are slowly curtailing […]
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Beef Prices, the Fed to Sell Bonds, and Demographics
Macro Overview Markets seemed undeterred by political indecisiveness in Washington surrounding healthcare reform, which could affect upcoming tax reform in the fall that is hinged on the ability of passage by Congress. Even though lawmakers are coming under escalating pressure to demonstrate legislative progress, the inability of the House to pass healthcare legislation didn’t hold […]
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More Homes For Sale, Less Homes Sold – Housing Market
Update Dynamics within the housing market are a result of wages, consumer sentiment, interest rates, and the economic environment. Over the past year, the number of homes for sale and the number of homes sold has diverged. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development carefully tracks all home listings and sales on a monthly […]
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How The Debt Ceiling Came About – Historical Note
Formally known as the statutory debt limit, the United States debt ceiling or debt limit is a legislative restriction on the amount of national debt that can be issued by the Treasury. The debt limit has been raised 79 times since its creation in 1917, with 17 of these increases occurring over the past 20 […]
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Euro Getting Stronger, Dollar Getting Weaker – Currency Update
The euro jumped above 1.20 for the first time in 2 1/2 years, as weaker than expected U.S. economic data boosted European growth forecasts. The common currency has been rising for several months on the expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will begin tapering its bond buying program. So far this year the euro […]
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